Weekly flows dropped by about 530,000 barrels a day in the period to Nov. 3, as Russia made no shipments from the Arctic port of Murmansk and just one from Novorossiysk on the Black Sea. Four-week exports fell by 90,000 barrels a day, extending their decline for a second week, despite major ports on the Baltic and Pacific coasts operating near peak levels.
The drop in cargoes from Novorossiysk mirrors a four-day gap in the loading program; such periods often indicate maintenance at a port or on the pipelines serving it. The slump in Arctic shipments may simply be a reflection of scheduling, with three tankers loading the previous week and four more at, or very close to, Murmansk fjord by the end of the most recent period.
Russia’s primary refining rate rose sharply in the final week of October, as seasonal maintenance passed its peak. That likely reduced the volume of crude available for export.
India’s Petroleum Minister Hardeep Puri says his country, already the largest market for Moscow’s seaborne crude, can further boost oil imports from Russia if prices are right, adding that there had recently been a small decline, with other sources becoming more competitive. Russia now provides 38% of India’s crude imports, he added.
The drop in shipments came as the OPEC+ group of oil producers, which Russia leads alongside Saudi Arabia, delayed for the second time a plan to start adding back some of the supply it has cut in recent years. Moscow will have to wait until at least the start of next year to enjoy a rising production target, though that could be postponed again.
Crude Shipments
A total of 29 tankers loaded 21.11 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to Nov. 3, vessel-tracking data and port-agent reports show. The volume was down from 24.97 million barrels on 32 ships the previous week.
Daily crude flows in the week to Nov. 3 slumped by about 530,000 barrels to 3.02 million, the lowest in six weeks. The drop was driven by lower flows from the country’s Black Sea and Arctic ports, which more than offset higher shipments from the Pacific.
Less volatile four-week average flows also fell, dropping for a second week to average 3.32 million barrels a day, down by 90,000 from the period to Oct. 27.
Crude shipments so far this year are about 50,000 barrels a day, or 1.4%, below the average for the whole of 2023.
One cargo of Kazakhstan’s KEBCO crude was loaded at Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea and one at Novorossiysk on the Black Sea during the week.
Russia terminated its export targets at the end of May, opting instead to restrict production, in line with its partners in the OPEC+ oil producers’ group. The country’s output target is set at 8.978 million barrels a day until the end of December, after a planned easing of some output cuts was delayed for a second time.
Moscow also pledged to make deeper output cuts in October and November this year, then between March and September of 2025, to compensate for pumping above its OPEC+ quota earlier this year.
Export Value
The effect on the Kremlin’s oil income from the drop in flows was boosted by declines in the price of Russian crude, which together pushed the gross value of Moscow’s exports down by about $250 million to $1.35 billion in the week to Nov. 3.
Income fell with a slump in weekly-average prices for Russia’s major crude streams adding to the effect of the lower export volume. The price drop was in line with broader declines for oil after Iran’s energy infrastructure was spared in Jerusalem’s retaliation for the missile barrage that the Persian Gulf nation launched against Israel at the start of last month.
Export values at Baltic ports were down week-on-week by about $2.30 a barrel. Prices for Black Sea loading Urals and key Pacific grade ESPO fell by about $1.90 compared with the previous week. Delivered prices in India were down by a similar amount, all according to numbers from Argus Media.
Four-week average income slipped to about $1.53 billion a week, from $1.57 billion in the period to Oct. 27.
On this basis, the price of Russia’s shipments from the Baltic and Black Sea in the four weeks to Nov. 3 was down by about $0.80 a barrel from the period to Oct. 27. Prices for key Pacific grade ESPO were lower by about $0.30 a barrel.
