China is expected to sharply reduce its wheat imports. The USDA initially forecasted 6.5 million tonnes for Chinese wheat imports in March, revising this to 3.5 million tonnes by April, a significant drop from the 13.6 million tonnes imported in the prior season. This reduction affects major exporters like Australia, for which China is a significant market. Other factors influencing trade dynamics include import restrictions and market conditions.
Additional pressures on global wheat trade include import limitations in Turkey due to high domestic stocks and smaller harvests among key exporters. The European Union’s wheat export forecast was adjusted from 27 million tonnes in March to 26.5 million tonnes in April, reflecting a 30% decrease from the previous season and the lowest since 2018/2019. Ukraine’s wheat export projection increased slightly by 500,000 tonnes to 16 million tonnes but remains below last season’s 18.6 million tonnes. Russia is anticipated to export 44 million tonnes, down from over 55 million tonnes in the prior season.
Despite a slight downgrade, global wheat production for 2024/2025 is expected to reach a record high, with ending stocks rising from 260.1 to 260.7 million tonnes, though still the lowest since 2015/2016. Trade in other grains, such as corn, barley, and rice, is also expected to decline by 7% in the 2024/2025 season. Global corn production is forecasted to decrease, particularly in the United States, the largest exporter. China, a major corn importer in 2023/2024, is projected to reduce corn imports by 65% due to higher domestic output.
The grain market faces ongoing volatility driven by trade restrictions, shifts in domestic production, and smaller harvests among leading exporters. For countries reliant on exports, such as Australia, the United States, and Ukraine, the reduced demand from key importers may require strategic adaptations and increased competition in alternative markets.
