Global economic growth is slowing, with trade demand weakening. The World Bank forecasts global trade growth to drop from 3.4% in 2024 to 1.8% in 2025, the lowest in nearly a decade. Despite challenges, global production of major crops like rice, maize, sorghum, and oilseeds is expected to reach record levels, with total grain output projected at 2.925 billion tonnes, up 2.3% year-on-year. Grain trade volumes are anticipated to grow 1.2% to 487 million tonnes, and a global grain stock-to-use ratio of 30.3% indicates a stable supply. In China, a robust summer grain harvest of 149.74 million tonnes was achieved, marking the second-largest on record.
Food price trends varied in the first half of 2025. The FAO Food Price Index increased by 2.6%, with declines in grains and sugar prices offset by rises in dairy, meat, and vegetable oils. Prices for rice, wheat, maize, sugar, and palm oil decreased, while soybeans, cotton, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, pork, beef, lamb, dairy, poultry, and eggs saw gains. China’s agricultural trade totaled USD 147.84 billion, down 6.5% year-on-year. Imports fell 10.1% to USD 98.5 billion, while exports rose 1.8% to USD 49.34 billion, reducing the trade deficit by 19.6% to USD 49.16 billion.
China’s soybean imports grew 1.8% to 49.372 million tonnes in the first half, driven by strong domestic demand, with high import levels expected to continue. Vegetable oil imports, including palm, soybean, rapeseed, and sunflower oils, dropped 8.6% to 3.187 million tonnes, with full-year imports projected at 7.5–8.0 million tonnes due to price dynamics. Beef imports are expected to decline slightly, while mutton imports are forecasted to increase due to tightening global supplies. Dairy imports are projected to recover, despite a slight global oversupply and steady price rises.
Poultry and egg markets show a slight oversupply. Poultry prices edged up, while egg prices remained high but fluctuated. China’s chicken imports are expected to rise modestly, and egg exports are projected to grow in 2025. The report underscores the strength of China’s agricultural sector, forecasting moderate trade growth for key products despite global economic and environmental challenges.
