Ukraine, a leading global grain producer and exporter, expects a potential increase in its 2025 wheat and corn harvests, contingent on favorable weather, according to Deputy Economy Minister Taras Vysotskiy. In an interview with Reuters on Monday, August 4, 2025, in Kyiv, Vysotskiy projected that wheat output could rise to 22 million tons from the current estimate of 21.2 million tons, while corn production might reach 28 million tons, up from 26.5 million tons.

An agricultural worker operates a combine during wheat harvesting, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in the Kherson region, Ukraine July 24, 2025.

The 2025 harvest could match the 2024 total of 56 million tons, which included 22.7 million tons of wheat and 26 million tons of corn. This follows a significant decline from 2021, when Ukraine harvested 84 million tons of grain, including 32 million tons of wheat and nearly 42 million tons of corn, before territorial losses in 2022 reduced agricultural capacity. Vysotskiy noted: “Previously, the forecast was 26.5 million tons of corn for 2025, but there is potential for growth - optimistically speaking, we could see 28 million tons, provided there are no serious unforeseen circumstances.”

Strong export demand is expected to drive an increase in winter wheat sowing for the 2026 crop, with the area projected to grow by 6.4% to 5 million hectares, supported by a reduction in soybean cultivation. Vysotskiy stated: “Considering that wheat prices are currently good for both food and feed, 5 million hectares of sown area is possible.” Winter wheat, comprising over 95% of Ukraine’s wheat harvest, remains a cornerstone of its agricultural exports, which historically ranked fifth globally.

For the 2025/26 July-June season, Ukraine anticipates exporting up to 40 million tons of grain, including 15 to 16 million tons of wheat. While the European Union has reduced wheat imports from Ukraine to 1 million tons from 4 million to support its farmers, Vysotskiy emphasized that redirecting the 3 million tons to other markets is manageable: “These three million tonnes (which Ukraine previously supplied to the EU) are not critical in terms of redirection to other markets.” Key markets include North Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia.

Despite seasonal price declines during peak harvests, the Ukrainian farmers’ union UAC reported stable wheat export prices of $222–$227 per ton in 2025, supported by steady demand. In July–August, 3.45 million tons of wheat were contracted for export, reflecting robust international interest.