Renewable diesel production, which averaged 210,000 barrels per day in 2024, is projected to rise to 220,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 250,000 barrels per day in 2026. These figures are unchanged from the April report. The EIA also revised its net import outlook for renewable diesel, now expecting zero net imports in both 2025 and 2026, compared to a previous forecast of -10,000 barrels per day for each year. In 2024, net imports averaged 30,000 barrels per day.
Renewable diesel consumption is expected to align closely with production, reaching 210,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 250,000 barrels per day in 2026, matching last month’s projections. In 2024, consumption averaged 240,000 barrels per day, indicating a steady demand for renewable diesel in transportation and other sectors.
For “other biofuels,” which include renewable heating oil, SAF, renewable jet fuel, renewable naphtha, renewable gasoline, and emerging biofuels, production is forecasted to average 50,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 60,000 barrels per day in 2026, consistent with the April outlook. Consumption of these biofuels, which stood at 20,000 barrels per day in 2024, is expected to rise to 50,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 60,000 barrels per day in 2026, also unchanged from the previous report.
An EIA spokesperson stated: “Our forecasts for renewable diesel and other biofuels reflect a steady growth trajectory, driven by increasing demand for sustainable fuel alternatives and advancements in production technologies.”
Net imports of “other biofuels” are projected to remain at zero for 2025 and 2026, consistent with 2024 and the April forecast. This indicates a balanced domestic supply and demand for these emerging renewable fuels, particularly SAF, which is gaining traction in the aviation industry.
The EIA’s outlook highlights the growing role of renewable fuels in the U.S. energy mix, supporting efforts to reduce carbon emissions in transportation and industrial sectors. The stable forecasts suggest confidence in the scalability of renewable diesel and biofuel production, driven by technological advancements and market demand. As the U.S. continues to prioritize cleaner energy, these fuels are expected to contribute significantly to sustainability goals, with production and consumption rising steadily through 2026.
