In the first four months of 2025, cargo turnover at Russian seaports declined by 5.4% compared to the same period in 2024, reaching a total of 280.7 million tons, according to the Association of Commercial Seaports. The most significant drop occurred in grain transshipment, which saw a reduction of 52.7%, falling to 12.1 million tons. Overall, dry cargo transshipment decreased by 6%, export cargoes dropped by 5.4%, and coastal cargo volumes declined by 17.5%.

One of the most affected areas is the port of Novorossiysk, a key hub for wheat exports. Data from the TBI / Logistic OS Group indicates that between May 1 and 11, 2025, only 399.6 thousand tons of wheat were shipped from Novorossiysk, a sharp decline from 696.4 thousand tons during the same period in 2024. This represents a nearly 50% drop in export volume. Terminals are operating at half capacity, and trading activity has sharply reduced. The decrease in exports is largely attributed to high domestic grain prices, falling global prices, and the burden of export duties, all of which have made grain exports unprofitable.

As a result, traders are purchasing less grain, leading to delays in shipments and disruptions in logistics chains. Despite continued demand from major grain-importing countries such as Egypt, Turkey, and Iran, this is not enough to offset the reduced export volumes. Russia is losing competitiveness in the global market due to its inability to offer competitive export prices. Industry experts predict that unless changes are made to the export duty system, price stabilization, and logistics modernization, the sector will continue to face a systemic decline. Companies in the agricultural sector are expected to record financial losses as a result.

This situation presents significant challenges for Russia's agricultural industry. While global demand for grain remains stable, the reduction in transshipment could result in a shift of market shares to other exporting nations like Ukraine or EU countries, who could capitalize on Russia's struggles to meet competitive demands.

The decline in Russian grain exports underscores the urgent need for policy reforms, including a review of export duties and a focus on stabilizing prices. The potential for long-term losses in market share could significantly affect Russia’s position as a leading grain exporter. In order to prevent further setbacks, Russia's agricultural sector must adapt to new market conditions and improve its competitiveness in the global trade of grains.