China’s coal output in July 2025 fell to its lowest level since April 2024, according to statistics bureau data released on Friday. The decline, the first year-on-year drop of 2025, suggests a possible response to market oversupply.

Coal is loaded into a bulk carrier at Qingdao Port, Shandong province, China, April 21, 2019. Picture taken April 21, 2019.

The country produced 380.99 million metric tons of coal in July, down 3.8% from July 2024. However, cumulative production from January to July 2025 totaled 2.78 billion metric tons, up 3.8% year-on-year, supported by steady increases in the first six months.

Analysts have been monitoring for signs of production adjustments to address excess supply, with expectations rising for a potential decline in output during the second half of 2025.

On July 20, the energy regulator issued a document announcing inspections at coal mines in eight provinces. This led to coking coal prices hitting their trading limit in consecutive sessions, as markets anticipated reduced supply. While it is not confirmed whether this reflects a coordinated national approach, the move has fueled expectations of tighter coal availability moving forward.