Australia exported 23.49 million tonnes (Mt) of wheat, including durum, in the year to September 30, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. This total is below the record 31.67Mt shipped in 2022-23, but above the 19.59Mt shipped in 2023-24, which reflected a smaller crop in Western Australia, the region producing most of the country’s exported wheat.

Of the 2024-25 exports, 21.64Mt were shipped in bulk and 2.4Mt in containers. In the boxed wheat market, Thailand imported 329,101 tonnes, Malaysia 299,712 tonnes, and Indonesia 264,165 tonnes, making them the three largest markets. In bulk shipments, Indonesia led with 3.96Mt, followed by the Philippines at 3.21Mt and China at 1.48Mt.

Peter McMeekin noted in his column this week that Australian wheat exports in 2024-25 were sharply lower than in 2023-24, when the country reached its highest wheat export levels.

The current wheat harvest is approximately 30% complete. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) forecast on September 2 a total 2024-25 harvest of 33.77Mt. Meanwhile, Lachstock Consulting projected the 2025-26 wheat crop at 36.83Mt, with exports expected to reach 24.59Mt.

Markets are now anticipating the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), which will provide updated figures following the September report. The October WASDE release was delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown.

The USDA’s September WASDE had estimated the current Australian wheat crop at 34.5Mt, with exports at 25Mt. These figures serve as a benchmark for tracking production and export trends as the 2024-25 harvest progresses.

The data highlights the dynamic nature of Australia’s wheat exports, influenced by regional harvests, crop forecasts, and global demand. Western Australia continues to play a key role in supplying the majority of exported wheat, while Southeast Asian markets remain central to boxed and bulk wheat trade.

With global market attention on upcoming USDA updates, industry participants are monitoring potential changes in crop and export estimates, which could affect trade flows, pricing, and supply chain planning for both the 2024-25 and 2025-26 marketing years.

Australia’s wheat export performance underscores the importance of crop size, market demand, and forecast revisions, and demonstrates how production fluctuations influence both domestic planning and international trade engagement.