Throughout 2025, the average price difference between wholesale beef carcass and special pork carcass in Greater São Paulo reached R$9.47 per kg in real terms. This gap is 36% wider than the 2024 average and 12% above the 2023 level, although it remains 25% narrower than the record spread of R$12.64/kg observed in 2022.
Cepea researchers attribute pork's improved relative position primarily to sustained firmness in beef prices. In the Greater São Paulo wholesale market, beef carcass averaged R$22.25/kg during the first eleven months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%. By contrast, special pork carcass averaged R$12.78/kg over the same period, reflecting a more moderate rise of 5.5% compared with 2024.
The wider price spread has encouraged protein substitution in both food service and retail channels, with consumers and processors increasingly opting for pork when formulating menus and processed products. Industry sources report growing demand for pork cuts in barbecue restaurants, supermarkets and food manufacturers seeking to maintain margins amid elevated beef costs.
Cepea notes that domestic pork supply has remained ample in 2025, supported by stable feed costs and continued expansion of integrated production systems. Meanwhile, beef supply has faced constraints from herd rebuilding and strong export demand, keeping wholesale prices elevated.
The current price relationship places pork at its most attractive level versus beef in three years, providing Brazilian consumers with a more affordable animal protein option while supporting higher per-capita pork consumption. Analysts expect the competitive advantage to persist into early 2026 unless significant shifts occur in cattle slaughter rates or international beef trade flows.
